2026 Q1 Heavy Equipment Market Trends

Excavators: Strong Demand Continues

Mid-size excavators (20-35 ton class) showed the strongest YoY gains in Q1 2026, up 10-12% compared to the same period in 2025. The CAT 320 / 320 GC, Komatsu PC200, and Deere 350G all saw auction averages improve relative to prior year comparable data.

Infrastructure bill spending continues to push demand for excavators, particularly in the Southeast and Southwest regions where road, utility, and water infrastructure projects are in full execution. We saw regional price premiums of 6-9% in Texas, Florida, and the Southeast corridor compared to Midwest and Mountain West markets.

Large excavators (35+ tons) showed slightly more muted gains (+7.8% YoY) as the large mining and quarry sector saw some project delays in the Mountain West.

Key models to watch: CAT 320 GC, Komatsu PC200, Volvo EC220E

Dozers: Regional Divergence

Dozer markets told two different stories in Q1 2026. The Southeast and South Central regions saw dozer auction averages up 6-8% YoY, supported by land clearing and site development work tied to distribution center and manufacturing facility construction.

The Mountain West and Northern Plains told a different story. Weaker mining sector activity in Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana pushed dozer values down 3-5% YoY in those regions. Aggregate national figures show modest 1.8% YoY growth, but that average masks significant regional variation.

For dealers in the Mountain West, this means comp selection is particularly important - relying on national averages will systematically overvalue iron in soft regional markets. IronValue's geographic scoring factor specifically addresses this by weighting in-state and regional comps more heavily.

Key models to watch: CAT D6, Deere 850K, Komatsu D65

Wheel Loaders: Steady Gains

Mid-size wheel loaders (3-5 cubic yard bucket class) continued their steady appreciation, up 4.2% YoY on a national basis. The CAT 950, Komatsu WA320, and Deere 544 all performed well at auction, with tight bid competition at Ritchie Bros events suggesting continued buyer demand.

The articulated dump truck category showed stronger-than-expected gains of 7.6% YoY. Infrastructure project activity that drives excavator demand also creates demand for ADTs, and we're seeing this correlation play out in the auction data.

Backhoe Loaders: Continued Softening

The backhoe loader category remains under pressure from compact excavators, which offer more versatility for many utility and construction applications. The Deere 310SL and Case 580 Super N both saw auction averages decline modestly (-3.1% YoY) compared to Q1 2025.

This is not a collapse - backhoes remain a critical tool for utility contractors and rural markets where their loader-backhoe combination provides unique value. But the trend toward compact excavators eating into backhoe market share continues, and it's showing up in auction results.

Dealers sitting on backhoe inventory should be aware that the market headwind is likely to persist through 2026 unless commodity prices shift in a way that boosts agricultural and rural construction spending.

Q2 2026 Outlook

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act continues to push project spending into execution, supporting demand for excavators, loaders, and ADTs. We expect mid-size excavators and wheel loaders to maintain their strength through Q2 2026.

The dozer regional divergence is likely to persist. Dealers in strong markets (Southeast, Texas) can be aggressive on trade-in values; Mountain West dealers should remain disciplined.

Compact equipment (skid steers, compact excavators) shows continued strength at +5-8% YoY, reflecting the growth of smaller contractors and rental company fleet refreshes.